Wednesday 27 March 2019

The Establishment have won



We are at a terrible position. Brexiteers are staring down the barrel of the gun of a terrible, capitulation as the former Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson, said that we are 'surrendering control to the EU', or No Brexit. No Deal is a legal option, of course, but it will not happen as Sir Oliver Letwin et al with their leader-in-chief John Bercow, will stop it legally.

From Iain Duncan Smith, to Jacob Rees-Mogg and to Boris Johnson, Conservative MPs are switching to support this capitulation. This is mainly due to Mrs. May resigning when we legally leave at the end of May, if it is passed. We must understand how this started.

Firstly, do not forget Mrs. May is a Remainer. All five leadership contenders from 2016 support the Withdrawal Agreement. Everything went downhill from Lancaster House. We had Florence, which basically was a load of opt-ins, Mansion House, which became even weaker, then Chequers, and now the Deal. Plus we had a General Election, which should have been her downfall.

I have respect for Brexiteers, whom on principle, vote for and against this new treaty. But, those who vote in favour, are wrong. To be clear, remaining is better. We are moving from one treaty to another, and the new one is worse. Gavin Barwell thought if he gave Brexiteers control over immigration, we would leap at the chance as he thinks we are all bigots, and racists. He was wrong. However, Brexiteers who say they will continue to oppose this treaty, I will thank them. They stayed until the end.

I have to say, with regret, this new treaty will pass. A decent bulk of Labour including the highly respectable Caroline Flint, will support this, and it will be over. I will be disappointed and disappointed wholly in our political class, who have done whatever they can to give us a proper Brexit - but - the Future Relationship is still in to play for. Mark Sedwill, Mrs. May and Olly Robbins all need sacking and we should have a better negotiating team, and actually a leader. I wish for Dominic Raab, and I hope he will stand. 

The establishment has won the battle, and probably the war. The Brexiteers can win a small victory if we achieve a Brexit-supporting, freedom-loving leader for the future, but in the end, the Conservative Party will be dead to the country, and the emergence of a new political party is needed more than ever before.

Saturday 23 March 2019

Mrs. May must go now


Vividly, I remember when Grant Shapps called for Mrs. May to resign in late 2017 and it was widely derided by the whole Conservative Party - including Brexiteers - and I was one of the few on the side of Mr. Shapps. I love to say 'I told you say so', but this time, it is not so sweet.

The Prime Minister was a Remainer. Despite the rumours that she may take an active role in the Leave campaign, she didn't, and was a silent assassin so she could gain the keys to No. 10. She had promise, but she should have resigned after the 2017 GE. I have to say, Mrs. May is not my type of politician, socially or economically, and I did not support her, but I tried my level best. Since the election, it has gone downhill. First being the Joint Report, then Chequers, then the discredited and abominable Withdrawal Agreement. Cabinet should not fulfil its duty and tell her the game is up, and Mr. May should replicate the attitudes of Denis Thatcher. She must go now. 

According to journalists Sam Coates and Tim Shipman, the three candidates are her former enemy, Michael Gove, her de-facto Deputy, David Lidington, and her loyal Foreign Secretary, Jeremy Hunt. Since the Brexit campaign and before, Michael was who I wanted for PM. But not now. I would not be shocked if he agreed to a so-called 'Norway Plus' Brexit, and the other two would be equally worse. Do not be deceived that Jeremy Hunt went on GMB after we voted to Leave, saying we must remain the Single Market. I will not even talk about David Lidington, who is on par with Ken Clarke on his Euroscepticism. 

We do need a leader, and a new PM, that is a fact. It must be fast. It must start by Cabinet fulfilling its duty. I am throwing my hat in the ring in support of the principled, authentic, former lawyer, Dominic Raab. 

Sunday 17 March 2019

Meaningful Vote 3: Opinion



I have wavered over the last few weeks deciding to back the Deal to get us over the line and to leave the EU this year, partly due to public sentiment. I then thought the general public will take a very dismal view if in 5 years’ time we are stuck inside the Northern Ireland Protocol without any meaningful way out or a way a sovereign, British Parliament could extricate us out.

The deal is terrible. Let’s not make any bones about it. Article 6 states that we will still be bound by EU law only, including procurement, data, EU’s ETF and many more including VAT and importantly the ‘arbitration mechanism’ that Mrs. May achieved. The European Court of Justice is still our highest court by degree, and disputes will be adjudicated as such, and full jurisdiction will continue for at least 10 more years. We are tied to EU foreign policy. There is a ‘Joint Committee’, which is fancy wording for unelected civil servants and bureaucrats making laws, without accountability. These alone are enough to make it a bad deal, and this is not including the Northern Ireland Protocol.

I cannot in good faith support this Withdrawal Agreement, and I therefore urge MPs to stand firm and vote down this Agreement. The legal default is still we leave in 12 days’ time, and do not bet on the EU automatically accepting a short delay, with no concessions from us. Many Brexiteers have decided to back this deal because they believe the alternative is worse, e.g. EEA+CU membership. But we can get out of that easily, and with a Brexiteer PM in future, we could leave it as a sovereign Parliament. This is not the end game for Brexit. However, I cannot support an Agreement that undermines democracy, sovereignty, and the mandate from the British electorate. We must stand firm in the face of it.